On July 28th, 2021, the Oakland Athletics made one of their more questionable decisions in recent franchise history. They acquired the then 32 year old outfielder Starling Marte from the Miami Marlins for young fireballer Jesus Luzardo. At that time, Luzardo’s value was at an all time low. Once rated as the 4th best prospect in baseball by ESPN in 2020, Luzardo’s young career in the big leagues had been a struggle.

Expectations

After a pretty nice cup of coffee at the end of the 2019 season in which he hurled 12 innings out of the bullpen to the tune of a 1.50 ERA, Luzardo couldn’t replicate that success while pitching mainly out of the bullpen. In the shortened 2020 season, Jesus had a very “meh” season, pitching to a 4.30 Expected Earned Run Average (xERA) and a 4.19 FIP. Luzardo had an uncharacteristically low 23.8 K% and a mediocre SIERA of 4.05. It was by no means a “bad” season, but many anticipated something greater. Luzardo started Game 1 of the Wild Card round against the Chicago White Sox, and ultimately finished 8th in AL Rookie of the Year voting. However, this was not quite the kind of performance the A’s had hoped for from their top prospect.

Step back

Hoping for an improved performance in 2021, Oakland kept Luzardo in a role that kept him primarily in the rotation, and it backfired big time. In his time with Oakland that year, he was giving up a jaw-dropping 2.6 home runs per nine innings. He had lost his command, with his walk rate skyrocketing. This poor performance was the primary reason that he was sent to Miami in the trade for Starling Marte. While Luzardo had undoubtedly struggled, many were confused that the Athletics would give up on his ceiling that quickly. His high upside was still visible, and it seemed slightly premature to get rid of someone, who was as recently as the year prior, rated as one of the best prospects in baseball. In his half season that year with Miami, the results were all too similar for Luzardo, thus resulting in a somewhat lost season for his development. Fast forward to September of 2022, and albeit in a small sample size due to injury, Luzardo is having a great year. This stark turnaround did not happen overnight, rather with significant adjustments made by Luzardo.

Playing to strengths

For starters, Luzardo has played to his strengths more as a pitcher this year. Due to his poor luck in inducing soft contact, Luzardo has gone for a more strikeout-heavy approach, increasing the usage of his curveball and changeup, which have generated far more whiffs. His curveball and changeup usages have gone up by 3.6% and 2.6% respectively, while both his four-seam fastball and sinker have both been utilized less. The direct results from his increased off speed usage have been an increase in his ability to miss bats, and allow less hard contact when batters do hit it. He has risen into the 87th percentile in whiff rate, while allowing an absurd 3.8% less barrels than last year.

Location

Another key to his success has been his ability to throw his four-seam and sinker low in the zone. When thrown lower in the zone by Luzardo, batters have a tendency to pound them into the ground, or hit it off the end of the bat. Since he’s started throwing his fastballs lower in the zone this year, the results have improved dramatically, with the run value on each decreasing by nine.

final thoughts

In conclusion, Jesus Luzardo’s 2022 season is showcasing exactly the potential he flashed coming out of high school and in the minor leagues. Along with ace Sandy Alcantara and the always-underrated Pablo Lopez, this Marlins rotation is going to be dangerous for years to come.