When the Detroit Tigers signed Javier Báez to a 6 year, 140 million dollar contract, they were looking for him to provide a spark in the middle of a lineup that really needed help, while also playing elite defense. While defense has been, the offense has not. From 2018-2021, Javier Báez had a 113 wRC+, .342 wOBA, and a .238 ISO. In 2022 however, Báez has just a 77 wRC+, .276 wOBA, and .157 ISO through eighty games played. People may wonder what happened to cause Báez to fall off so much, however taking a deeper look into his number shows it’s actually pretty clear what has caused him to go from a 116 wRC+ in 2021, to a 77 wRC+ in 2022.

Downfall

One major reason for why Javier Báez has struggled so much is he falls into the same category that Tyler O’neill and Nick Castellanos are in-the quality of contact has taken a nosedive. To start off, Báez currently has the highest GB% of his career and the sixth worst in all of baseball at 53.2%. The league average GB% is 43%. This has led to an astonishingly high GB/FB ratio of 1.67, the 22nd worst in all of baseball and a far cry from the league average GB/FB ratio of 1.16. The reason hitting the ball on the ground is such an issue is the MLB has a 34 wRC+ on ground balls compared to a 129 wRC+, so it’s vital that Bàez starts lifting the ball if wants to rebound from how he’s performed so far

the Ground ball problem

Even if it’s at its worst, Báez has always had the tendency to hit the ball on the ground as he has a career 1.39 GB/FB. The difference between 2022 and years prior is he has always at the least made solid contact. Báez isn’t doing that this year. From 2018-2021, Bàez had a 43.2 HardHit%, 90.5 MPH Average Exit Velo, and an 11.8 Barrel%. In 2022 however, Bàez is carrying a 34.0 HardHit% (20th percentile), 87.5 MPH Average Exit Velo (20th percentile), and a 8.1 Barrel% (51st percentile). In years prior, Báez could at least rely on the fact he was hitting the ball hard at a stellar rate to get base hits, even if he had a tendency to hit the ball on the ground too much. Báez can’t rely on it this year since, whenever he puts the ball in play, it’s usually just a weakly hit ground ball to the pull side.

contact struggles

I mention “when he puts the ball in play,” because throughout his entire career, Báez has always been a high K% and low BB% type of player. Once again, he could get by because of his solid contact. However, when Báez has such poor quality of contact numbers and a 24.0 K% (38th percentile), 45.3 Chase% (1st percentile), 36.3 Chase%(2nd percentile), he’s not going to be successful at the plate. While Báez does have an average Barrel% (most important underlying number), that’s not enough when everything else has fallen off. The chart below shows how much worse his contact has been compared to last year.

As bad as his quality of contact has been, that is arguably only the second biggest reason as to why Báez has fallen off so much. Báez scouting report probably says something along the lines of, “Just throw him sliders.” In 2022, Báez has seen 429 sliders at the plate, far more than any other pitch, and has put up atrocious numbers against them. His statline against sliders reads:

.148 wOBA

1 wRC+

.076 ISO

54.1 O-Swing%

49.4 GB% (1.42 GB/FB)

-15 Run Value

-3.5 RV/100

What’s weird about this is it’s not all breaking pitches that Baez struggles against as he has a +5 Run Value and a .389 wOBA on curveballs. What’s even weirder than that, is Báez has never struggled against sliders like this. The lowest wRC+ Báez has had on a slider in a full 162 game season since getting regular playing time in 2016, was 92 so it was only slightly below league average. On top of all this, Báez put up great numbers against sliders in 2021. His splits between this year and last year were:

Splits since last year: