As the race to October rapidly approaches, there is a race for all 3 spots of the AL wild card this year. The race is between 6 teams, with 2 other teams being on the bubble for their division titles. For the sake of recency, I’m going to be looking at August splits. I understand the sample size isn’t that large, but a month's worth of volume shows where the players and team are going into September.

I am also going to use the Predictive Classified Run Average (pCRA) provided by Alex Chamberlain as well as a Deserved ERA (dERA) in order to evaluate pitchers since the predictor metrics account for more than SIERA, FIP, and ERA. The leaderboard is at the end of the article.

AL East

Going into April of this year, everyone believed that the AL East would be the division with the most contenders for the playoffs. But no one believed that the Orioles would replace the Red Sox as that 3rd team in the hunt. Can the AL East produce 4 teams in the playoffs for the first time ever? And can anyone make a run for the Yankees division title?

Tampa Bay Rays

September Schedule

6 Vs. Yankees, 6 Vs. Red Sox, 9 Vs. Blue Jays, 3 Vs. Rangers, 5 Vs. Astros, 3 Vs. Guardians

Despite being one of the most injured teams in baseball, the Rays have been able to stay in one of the 3 wild card spots for most of the year. Right now they sit half a game above the Mariners, a game above the Blue Jays, and 3 games above the Orioles. The Rays also have a lot of players coming off of the injured list, with Brandon Lowe and Manuel Margot back and several players such as Tyler Glasnow, Roman Quinn, Wander Franco, Shane Baz, and Yonny Chirinos all soon to be in rehab starts.

This is massive for the Rays, who need improvements to their current roster if they want to keep the 4 seed and possibly make a run at the division. September also has massive implications for them, with 6 games against the AL east leader Yankees and 9 against the current 6th seed Blue Jays. The Rays also are a candidate to catch the slumping Yankees by surprise and take back the AL East, with only a 7-game difference between the two teams and 6 games to play against each other. There is certainly a chance the unthinkable happens.

In the month of August, the Rays were 7th in WRC+, led by Randy Arozerena and Yandy Diaz as the major offensive contributors. New additions David Peralta and Jose Siri have both been positive offensive players in August, with Siri having a surprising 111 WRC+ with the Rays despite striking out around 40% of the time. If this Rays offense can sustain the success they had in August, it doesn't look good for the rest of the teams on this list.

The most remarkable part is the Tampa Bay pitching staff, who has had the 3rd lowest ERA, and lowest FIP and SIERA and the month of August. This has been spearheaded by star Shane McClanahan, but also a great August by Drew Rasmussen and Jeffery Springs. In one start against the Orioles, Rasmussen went 8 Innings without allowing any hits or walks, which is remarkable for the Rays’ 3rd starter with an injured rotation. Rasmussen has a 0.68 dERA, 2.93 SIERA, and 2.65 pCRA in August, and can still make an impact if Baz and Glasnow somehow come back. Springs also has done well this August, with a 2.48 dERA, 2.88 SIERA and 2.69 pCRA. With Glasnow and Baz’s return on the horizon, along with the depth at the starting position with Corey Kluber, Rasmussen, and Springs, going against the Rays in a 3, 5, or 7-game Series does not look easy.

The Rays have 2 massive series against the Yankees left, one at the Trop and one in the Bronx. Right now they stand 6 games back in the AL East. If you’re a Yankee fan, it’s time to sound the alarms.

The only issue is that they arguably have the hardest schedule of all the contenders, with 8 of the 11 out-of-division games they play against the Guardians and Astros. Still, FanGraphs gives them an 87% chance to make the playoffs, and I believe as well it is likely they get the 4th or 5th seed.

Toronto Blue Jays

September Schedule

3 Vs. Pirates, 10 Vs. Orioles, 3 Vs. Rangers, 9 Vs. Rays, 2 Vs. Phillies, 3 Vs. Yankees, 3 Vs. Red Sox

The Blue Jays had probably the most hype out of any of these teams coming into the season, with several pitching accusations and reigning AL MVP runner-up Vlad Guerrero Jr. leading a dynamic offense to make a run at the AL East this year. But in some ways, they have underperformed expectations. For instance, their trade pick-up Jose Berrios and their free agent signing Yusei Kikuchi have both been horrible in starting roles. Bo Bichette is not performing at the level he was at last year and the loss of Marcus Semien has hurt the Blue Jays offensively. Still, the Blue Jays are a very good team and at their peak one of the best teams in the AL.

Both Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah have had great seasons, with Manoah named an AL All-Star earlier this season and Gausman leading all pitchers in fWAR this season with over 5 fWAR and top 10 in K%. Gausman in the month of August continued to thrive, with a 2.55 dERA, 2.78 SIERA, and 3.26 pCRA, and continuously is top 10 in fWAR for the month. Manoah also has done well this August but has been barreled more in the month of August at over 11%, which explains his 5.16 pCRA (still has a 2.55 dERA and sub 4 SIERA). New addition Mitch White has struggled with giving up earned runs, but his pitching independent stats and expected stats show he’s due for improvement. He has above a 7 ERA, but a 3.56 FIP, 4.38 SIERA, 3.78 pCRA, and a difference of wOBA vs. xwOBA of 0.78, which is massive. Berrios has continued to disappoint but has shown some flashes like his recent start at the Yankees, with 6.1 innings pitched, 9 strikeouts, and 1 earned run allowed. Finally, Ross Stripling has also been good in august, with a 1.71 dERA and 2.97 pCRA, but in far fewer innings than the 3 pitchers above in August. This rotation is maybe not to the caliber of some of the other teams on the bubble, but Gausman and Manoah have shown this year that they are both very good pitchers, which will be helpful in the Best-of-3 wildcard round.

In August, the Blue Jays' offense has been below average, with an average WRC+ of 97, which is 17th in the league. Nothing to be alarmed about, but one of the reasons why in the past 10,20, and 30 games, the Blue jays have been at .500 at the end of August. Matt Chapman this year, along with his great defensive ability, has had a resurgent offensive season. Throughout the year he sits at 122 WRC+, and in the month of august has a 96 WRC+, which is not great but is not horrible for his upside at 3rd base. George Springer in a limited amount of plate appearances has done very well, with a 166 WRC+ in August, but continues to deal with injury issues. Teoscar Hernandez and Vladmir Guerrero Jr. continue to do well, both with over a 120 WRC+ in August, and Guerro Jr. with a 144 WRC+ on the year. Not at the 180 WRC that he had last year, but Guerrero Jr. still is one of the most talented players in the league and the Blue Jays' current star. And the Blue Jays also have one of the best catchers in baseball in Alejandro Kirk, who has struggled a bit this month at a 96 WRC+, but still has a 138 WRC+ for the year and is a very solid defensively, even though he spends a lot of time at DH (Danny Jansen at Catcher 57% of the time).

Santiago Espinal, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Raimel Tapia have all struggled this month, all with sub 90 wRC+ and Tapia at an abysmal 8 WRC+ in just over 50 plate appearances.

My issue with the Blue Jays is not that I don't think they have the talent, but their current .500 slump they’ve been in during August needs to be broken if they want a spot in October. Other than the 9 games against the Pirates, Rangers, and Red Sox, the rest of the teams they play in September are all playoff contenders, with 10 games left against the Orioles and 9 against the Rays. My hot take is that they either get the 6th seed or barely miss the playoffs. Maybe this is wishful thinking (for the sake of the Orioles), FanGraphs has the Blue Jays at a 92% chance to make the playoffs, and they have a 1.5-game lead on the Orioles and a 3-game lead on the Twins as the 6 seed. But I believe if they don’t pick it up in September against better teams, their playoff hopes may be in jeopardy.

Baltimore Orioles

September Schedule

3 vs. Guardians, 3 Vs. Athletics, 10 Vs. Blue Jays, 7 Vs. Red Sox, 2 Vs. Nationals, 3 Vs. Tigers, 4 Vs. Astros, 3 Vs. Yankees

The Orioles are the most exciting team on this list. With several prospects finally being called up from the extremely talented Orioles farm, it actually seems like the Orioles can make a legitimate playoff push this year.

Looking at their schedule, They play 8 games against bottom-tier teams and 7 against the Guardians and Astros, both series being played in Baltimore. As highlighted before, they play 10 games against the Blue Jays only 2 games behind in the Wild Card race, but also have 7 games left against the struggling Red Sox. So in terms of Schedule, they have a more forgiving schedule than most of these teams, with the stretch against the Blue Jays a necessity if they want to secure a playoff spot.

The Orioles' offense has been impressively good in August, having the 11th ranked WRC+ at 105, on top of an above-average defensive rating. Leading the way in August is Adley Rutchman, who has been tearing it up since his call-up. In August he had a 145 WRC+, a 19% Walk rate, a 14% strikeout rate, and a 9% barrel rate, while also being a plus defender at the catching position. This has allowed him to be the leader in fWAR on the team, which is crazy since he has about 100 fewer plate appearances than some of his teammates. Rutschman is also making noise to challenge Julio Rodríguez in the AL Rookie of the Year race, evident in Rodríguez's sure thing Vegas odds dropping dramatically.

The Orioles also have seen an incredible offensive improvement from Jorge Mateo, who has been an offensive liability in previous months but has a 132 WRC+ on top of his outstanding defensive ability. Other offensive contributors have been pretty consistent during the year, Cedric Mullins at a 137 WRC+ and Anthony Santander with a 121 WRC+ and a 13% barrel rate in August. Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays and Ramon Urias all have slumped in August, despite Mountcastle still at a high barrel rate at 11% in August, but they still show some upside.

The Orioles pitching also has been good, ranking in the top half of the league in ERA, FIP and SIERA. In the first half of the season the Orioles Bullpen was one of the top surprises of the season, and that has continued for the main standouts in August. Felix Bautista has cemented himself as a top tier reliever in baseball, with a 0.79 dERA and a 2.34 pCRA in August. He also is ranked #1 in Eno Sarris’s Stuff+ model, and in the 99th percentile in fastball velocity. Dillion Tate and Cionel Perez continue to do well in August with a 3.5 and 2.8 pCRA respectively in August.

The rest of the bullpen has regressed a bit with the loss of Jorge Lopez during the MLB trade deadline, but the other notable arms are Keegan Akin and Bryan Baker, who don’t have great ERA numbers, but a sub 2.9 pCRA. The difference in this half of the season is the Orioles starting pitching and putting it together. Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, and Kyle Bradish have all impressed in August, all with sub 2.7.5 dERAs and Bradish and Kremer with sub 4 pCRAs. Spencer Watkins has also impressed, along with a serviceable Jordan Lyles, which is shocking to say out loud.

The starting rotation isn’t as impressive as the Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays or Guardians, but when leading after 6 innings, the Orioles are 52–1, which is a testament to their amazing bullpen and reawakened offense.

The most exciting part of the Orioles this season is the sheer amount of young talent that the Orioles have on their major league roster. Recent call-ups of Kyle Stowers, Terrin Vavra, and MLB’s #2 top prospect Gunnar Henderson have sparked an exciting brand of baseball out of this Orioles team, and they are a serious threat to take a wildcard spot from one of these teams.

New York Yankees

September Schedule

6 Vs. Rays, 4 Vs. Twins, 7 Vs. Red Sox, 3 vs. Brewers, 2 Vs. Pirates, 3 Vs. Blue Jays, 3 Vs. Orioles, 4 Vs. Rangers

There is little concern that the Yankees will fumble for a playoff spot so I won’t go too in-depth, but the Yankee’s hold of the AL East is something that is far from certain now. Their 10–18 August is one of the worst months in franchise history and is a far fall from grace from the 52–18 start these Yankees had just a couple of months ago. In August, the Yankees had at least one of their aspects of the game completely fall apart. The pitching has not been bad, being Top 6 in ERA, FIP and SIERA, led surprisingly by Domingo German and Nestor Cortes (Who has a 0.68 dERA in August). Gerrit Cole has also been very good, but has been sold out by his defense on multiple occasions and has had an issue this year with giving up home runs. And the bullpen has also been ok, with Lou Trivino, Lucas Luetge, Wandy Peralta, and Ron Marinaccio all having solid Augusts.

The issue with the Yankees is their offense has fallen completely asleep. Other than Aaron Judge, who has around a 200 WRC+, in August, the Yankees have the 23rd best WRC+ in August at 87. That is horrible for a team that was seen as a World Series favorite just a couple of months ago. Gleyber Torres and Aaron Hicks have both been horrible this August, with a 26 and 10 WRC+ respectively, and Torres generating -0.7 fWAR in the month of august alone. The Yankees cannot have Aaron Judge as the only motor on this team going into September, with two massive series against the Rays coming up, as well as a series against the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Twins also in their September Schedule. The good news is, their schedule is much more forgiving than the Rays, and the Blue Jays and Orioles have a chance to beat up on each other, which may allow the Yankees to keep hold of the division, despite subpar play.

AL Central Race

The AL Central race this year is a lot more competitive than last year. Because of the struggles of the White Sox this year, the Guardians and Twins have both clashed all season for the 3rd seed in the AL playoff.

Minnesota Twins

September Schedule

9 Vs. White Sox, 4 Vs. Yankees, 8 Vs. Guardians, 6 Vs. Royals, 3 Vs. Angels, 3 Vs. Tigers

The Twins this year have lived up to last year's expectations, but still, struggle to secure a playoff spot. Right now they are 1 game behind the Guardians for the AL Central, but 3 games behind the Blue Jays for the final wild-card spot, so it’s likely that they’ll need to win the AL Central in order to clinch a playoff spot.

Their September schedule is not hard relative to the other teams in the hunt, but they are currently 4–6 in their season series with the White Sox and have 9 games left against them, as well as 8 games against the Guardians that will decide who is playing in October. But the other 12 games against the Royals, Angels, and Tigers are something that the Twins need in case of a slip-up against the Guardians this September.

In August, the Twins were 15th in the league in WRC+ with 102, led by Nick Gordon at 152 WRC+ and a 12% barrel rate, Carlos Correa at 129 WRC+, and Gio Urshela at 120 WRC+. The Twins also have current batting average leader Luis Arraez, who has been having a great season with a 134 WRC+ but only a 104 WRC+ in August (which is still good). And per usual Byron Buxton leads the team in fWAR this season and a 136 WRC+ but continues to deal with injuries and is currently on the 10-day IL heading into September. Most qualified starters for the Twins in the month of August have above 100 WRC+, with only Max Kepler struggling mightily at a 45 WRC+. All of this is to say the Twins' offense is good where it is heading into their September AL Central race.

The Twins' pitching surprisingly has been pretty good in August, they are 9th in ERA, but 3rd in FIP and 4th in SIERA. The Twins newest pickup Tyler Mahle has struggled with injury, but in the 12 innings pitched for the Twins he still sits at a 0.0 fWAR. But the rest of the pitching staff has exceeded expectations. Sonny Gray leads the staff as the ace (even though that sounds very weird), this August he has a 3.54 pCRA and a 2.62 dERA, followed by Joe Ryan with a 4.24 pCRA and 3.54 dERA, Chris Archer with a 3.89 pCRA and 3.79 dERA and Dylan Bundy, who has a very good dERA at 1.66, but a 5.11 pCRA.

The Twins also have a solid bullpen, both Jhoan Duran (1.95 dERA, 2.39 pCRA) and Caleb Thielbar (0.44 dERA, 1.44 PCRA) have been outstanding this August. And the additions of Michael Fulmer and Jorge Lopez only boost the bullpen that is 2nd in SIERA and 3rd in FIP this August.

All these names are not synonymous with the great playoff rotations in the National League, but to take the AL Central and the return of Mahle gives the Twins a good chance to clinch the 3 seed.

Cleveland Guardians

September Schedule

3 Vs. Mariners, 9 Vs. Royals, 8 Vs. Twins, 3 Vs. Angels, 4 Vs. White Sox, 3 Vs. Rangers, 3 Vs. Rays

The Guardians are possibly the weirdest team in the playoff hunt. They have a favorable schedule, with 9 Straight games at home to end the season, with 6 straight games against the Royals, and 9 total games against the Royals. They have 8 games against the Twins which can either solidify or lose the division for them, and their only real challenge is 6 games Vs. the Rays and Mariners. Otherwise, the Angels and White Sox’s recent struggles on top of the mediocrity of the Royals and Rangers should give the Guardians a pretty clear path to the AL Central. But when looking at their August splits there are questions on if they’ll actually make it.

First the good news, the Guardians have been a Top 3 pitching staff in August. Shane Bieber has done much better this month than in the previous months, even with his significant velocity decrease. He has a 1.71 dERA and a 2.83 pCRA , which is Top 8 among pitchers who threw over 400 pitches in August. Triston McKenzie has also had a good August with a 2.44 dERA and a 3.69 pCRA. And although wins are not a good pitcher stat at all, Cal Quantrill somehow keeps winning, with 11 wins this year, as well a 1.53 dERA and 4.01 pCRA in August. Other starters Zach Pleseac and Aaron Civale have been above average in August as well. The Cleveland bullpen is also top ranked in the league, with Emmanuel Clase having insane numbers in August, a -0.53 dERA and 1.59 pCRA along with 7 saves as the Guardians closer. Other notable arms are James Karinchak who is striking out 50% of batters in August, 0 earned runs and a 0.53 dERA, and 1.08 pCRA and Trevor Stephan, who has struck out batters near 40% in August with a 2.90 dERA and 1.26 pCRA.

The bad news, in August the Guardians' WRC+ rank is 25th in the league, at 83. This is not only bad but really confusing since Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, and Jose Ramirez all have done great this August, all over 120 WRC+. But the back half of their lineup has been abysmal, Myles Straw in 480 Plate appearances this year has a 52 WRC+ and in the month of August has an insane -42 WRC+. YES, a NEGATIVE 42 WRC+, that is the worst in the league in that span with a minimum of 80 plate appearances, and the next worst is Jose Barrero’s 5 WRC+ and Miguel Rojas’s 20 WRC+. The only reason he has gotten as many plate appearances as he’s gotten is that he also happens to be in the 97th percentile in Outs Above Average in a position of need in Center Field. Cleveland has also seen terrible Augusts by Owen Miller and Josh Naylor who both have struggled in August with sub 60 WRC+ and Austin Hedges also being not great offensively at 70 WRC+ (but is a positive fWAR player because of defense). If Cleveland can only have above-average offensive production from 4 players and horrid offense from the rest they will not make it far in September.

Mariners

The Astros have put away the AL West at this point. Even though the Mariners have been very good this year, the Astros have pulled ahead 11 games headed into September, and aren’t really relevant in regards to the AL Wild card race. The Mariners however are tied for the top spot in the AL Wild Card race and are looking to end the longest current playoff drought in all 4 major sports.

Seattle Mariners

September Schedule

3 Vs. Cleveland, 3 Vs. White Sox, 3 Vs. Braves, 4 Vs. Angels,

6 Vs. Athletics, 3 Vs. Royals, 3 Vs. Rangers, 4 Vs. Tigers

It really seems like this year is the year that the 21-year drought ends. After setting the record for regular season wins in a season in 2001, the Seattle Mariners have not made another trip to the postseason. But this year their team looks like a legitimate ALCS contender. Their schedule in September also helps, they play 13 games against bottom-tier teams in the Tigers, Athletics, and Royals, as well as a series against the Rangers and Angels. The only challenge they really face this September is a possible challenge against the White Sox and a series against the Guardians. Plus the Mariners aren’t really looking to chase down the Astros, they are instead aiming for the Top AL Wildcard spot.

The Mariners' offense ranks 13th in August in WRC+, which doesn't seem very promising, but they have several pieces on the team coming back in a big way. First off, Eugenio Suarez has gone nuclear in August, with a 171 WRC+, 9 home runs, and a 14.5% barrel rate. The Mariners also have had a great August from the return of Mitch Hanger at a 124 WRC+ and a surprisingly great August from Sam Haggerty at a 137 WRC+ in 64 plate appearances. Catcher Cal Raliegh has also been a surprisingly positive offensive contributor this August, which puts him 2nd on the team in fWAR and a 100 WRC+. And even with Ty France’s recent slump, 7 of 9 players with at least 50 plate appearances in August have over 100 WRC+ this August, and 4 of them have a Barrel rate above 10%. If Ty France can get back to his All-Star form, the Mariners have a legitimate chance of making the ALCS.

The Mariners also have a great starting rotation and bullpen. The Mariners' big trade deadline move was for Cincinnati ace Luis Castillo, who has performed well for the Mariners, with a 3.21 dERA and 3.13 pCRA in August. Rookie George Kirby is 2nd in fWAR on the pitching staff this year, with a 3.04 dERA and 2.85 pCRA in August. Robbie Ray has also stepped up in a big way, having several shut-out starts, with a 2.24 dERA and 3.25 pCRA in August, which is much better than his previous months. Logan Gilbert however has seen massive regression from his 1st half numbers and has struggled mightily in August, with a 6.42 dERA and 5.02 pCRA. Some numbers show he’s dealt with some bad luck, but his 2nd half has been a problem for the Mariners. But overall, the Mariners have a Top 5 rotation according to FIP and Top 8 in SIERA. Their bullpen is also very good. Diego Castillo has a -2.28 dERA and a 2.49 pCRA, Matt Brash has a 1.63 dERA and 1.40 pCRA, Andres Munoz has a 1.21 dERA and a 0.90 pCRA and Paul Sewald has a -0.63 dERA and 2.32 pCRA (All in August). All of this is to say that their bullpen is very dangerous headed into September, as well as a crucial piece in October.

Prediction

I think that the Blue Jays and Guardians will be the odd ones out come October. I understand how bad the Yankees have been and how the Orioles don’t have a phenomenal rotation, But the Blue Jays have 10 games with the Orioles on their schedule and the Guardians have just not been very good as of late. I believe the Yankees will be able to barely hold the AL East with their lackluster schedule ahead of them and the Rays will fall just below the Mariners in the AL standings.

#1 Astros, #2 Yankees Bye

#3 Twins Vs. #6 Orioles

#4 Mariners Vs. #5 Rays

Left out:

#7 Blue Jays #8 Guardians

ERA Estimators, Pt. II: Present

I semi-recently had the honor of presenting at PitcherList's PitchCon online conference to help raise money for Feeding…fantasy.fangraphs.com

Leaderboard: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/chamb117/viz/PitchLeaderboardv4/Dashboard