Jack Azoulay-Haron

After a somewhat slow start, Julio Rodríguez has burst onto the scene in his first season as a big leaguer, where he is putting up all-star caliber numbers for the Mariners. There are many questions to answer here though. How much better will he get? Are these numbers even sustainable? Is he even better than Ronald Acuña Jr. was in his rookie season, and perhaps comparable now?

Season Statistics:

339 PA

.277/.336/.487

138 wRC+

.355 wOBA

6.8 BB%

27.7 K%

36.8 O-Swing%

2.0 BsR

1 DRS

5 OAA

0.3 UZR

2.9 fWAR

Numbers since May 1st:

258 PA

.300/.353/.547

.389 wOBA

162 wRC+

6.2 BB%

24.8 K%

.257 ISO

37.9 O-Swing%

80.2 Z-Contact%

2.8 fWAR

Even throughout his first handful of MLB action, he’s played elite baseball, without good plate discipline, and with a very slow start (0.1 fWAR in April). How can this project his future ceiling?

Plate Discipline

In the minors, J-Rod’s track record suggests he has very good plate discipline. He can take walks and lay off pitches out of the zone. Through his first 339 PAs in MLB, he hasn’t shown that. What he’s shown specifically is his raw power, elite defense, base-running, and sustainable contact rates. Throughout 206 PAs AA in MiLB last season, he had a 14.1 BB%. Is it possible he can put up a number like this in MLB? Sure. Is it likely? Probably not, but if he can increase his number from his current 6.8% (which is incredibly likely) his game will move to a completely new level.

Rodríguez vs. Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuña Jr. is one of the best players in the game. He’s a generational talent. He’s gotten off to a somewhat slow start for his standards off of his torn ACL, but would still be considered an elite player, and I have no doubt he will bounce back. Let’s compare Rodríguez’s rookie season to Acuña Jr's:

Rodríguez:

339 PA

.277/.336/.487

138 wRC+

.355 wOBA

6.8 BB%

27.7 K%

36.8 O-Swing%

2.0 BsR

1 DRS

5 OAA

0.3 UZR

2.9 fWAR

Acuña Jr:

487 PAs

.293/.366/.552

.388 wOBA

142 wRC+

9.2 BB%

25.3 K%

27.3 O-Swing%

2.8 BsR

3 DRS

-3.4 UZR

3 OAA

4.1 fWAR

Though Acuña Jr’s plate discipline translated to MLB faster, his defense mightily improved in his second season, while Rodríguez already plays elite center field defense. Rodríguez is on pace to finish with a 5.0 fWAR according to steamer projections, and while I believe that to be somewhat conservative, it would still be better than Acuña’s rookie season. What is the point of all this? Nothing specifically for the time being, as Acuña Jr. has grown significantly as a player, but it’s to illustrate that there is still quite a bit of room for Rodríguez to grow. While I don’t think Rodríguez is a better player than Acuña Jr. right now, I think it is closer than the consensus opinion.

Is J-Rod a Top 10 Player?

Is Julio Rodríguez a top 10 player? I would have to say yes. There is nothing to suggest that Rodríguez is going to do anything besides progress. His elite center field defense and raw power definitely raises his ceiling significantly, and with the expectation that his plate discipline comes around soon, I would say that there are not 10 better players than Rodríguez right now.

ROS Steamer Projections:

290 PAs

.267/.331/.462

130 wRC+

.343 wOBA

0.3 BsR

7.7 BB%

25.4 K%

2.1 fWAR (5.0 Cumulative)